analysis4 min read

Illinois Electricity Rates Have Nearly Doubled Since 2021 — Here's What That Means for Your Bill

Ryan Cook•March 18, 2026•Updated Apr 19, 2026

I've been in the solar business in Illinois since 2021. Back then, Ameren was charging around 8¢/kWh all-in. ComEd was similar. A typical household electric bill was $80-$100/month.

That world is gone.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Ameren Illinois residential rates hit 15.5¢/kWh in 2026. ComEd is even worse at 17.07¢/kWh. That's roughly a 90% increase in five years.

For a household using 1,000 kWh/month — which is pretty typical for a 3-bedroom home in central Illinois — that's the difference between a $95 monthly bill and a $170 monthly bill. An extra $900 a year that just... vanished from your budget.

What's Driving This?

Two big things hit at the same time, and neither one is going away.

The capacity crisis. MISO, which manages the power grid for Ameren territory, saw their capacity auction clear at $666.50/MW-day in 2025. That's a 22x increase from $30/MW-day the year before. Why? Coal plants are retiring faster than new generation is coming online. Reserve margins collapsed from 6.5 GW to 2.6 GW. Those costs flow directly into your bill.

On the ComEd side, PJM's capacity auction hit a record $333.44/MW-day. ComEd's supply rate jumped 47% in a single year.

Infrastructure costs. Both utilities are spending billions on grid upgrades — and recovering every dollar through your delivery charges. Ameren got a $308.6 million rate increase approved by the ICC, plus an additional $48.4 million reconciliation charge. ComEd got $606 million in delivery rate increases.

What's Coming Next

I wish I could tell you it's leveling off. I can't.

Conservative estimates project 6% annual increases going forward. That means if you're paying $170/month today, you could be looking at $230/month by 2030. That's not a worst-case scenario — that's the baseline.

The underlying drivers aren't temporary. Coal retirements will continue. Grid modernization will continue. Data center demand (which PJM projects will consume 13% of grid capacity by 2035) will continue. Every one of those factors pushes rates higher.

What I Tell My Customers

When someone calls me about solar, the first thing I ask is: "What's your monthly electric bill?" If it's over $120, the math almost always works.

A solar lease locks in a rate as low as $0.10/kWh, fixed for 15 years. No escalator. That's less than what you're paying Ameren or ComEd today — and the gap gets wider every single year as utility rates keep climbing.

For a household in Belleville paying $128/month to Ameren, that's an estimated $700 in year-one savings on electricity alone. In Naperville, where ComEd bills average $240/month, estimated first-year savings are over $1,400.

The battery backup is a separate conversation — it's a home upgrade, not an electricity cost. But the power-only savings are real and they start from day one.

The Window Is Closing

Here's what concerns me: Illinois still has some of the best solar incentives in the country. The Illinois Shines REC program pays cash/finance buyers — starting June 2026, 50% as a lump sum after installation, with the remaining 50% in quarterly payments over 6 years. The $300/kW DG rebate is still available. Property taxes don't increase. And for income-eligible families, Solar for All provides solar at no cost with guaranteed savings on your electricity bill.

This year's small-DG residential REC prices actually rose about 6–7%, but they reset annually and the federal residential tax credit already expired in December 2025 — current levels aren't guaranteed to last.

I'm not trying to create urgency where there isn't any. The urgency already exists — it's on your electric bill. Every month you wait is another month paying rates that are 90% higher than they were five years ago.

What You Can Do

If you're curious what the numbers look like for your specific situation:

Solar Savings Calculator — See estimated year-by-year savings based on your actual bill
REC Calculator — Estimate your Illinois Shines REC value
Check Your Roof — Free satellite analysis of your roof's solar potential

Or just call me at (618) 217-2001. I'll pull up your city's data and walk you through the options in about 15 minutes. No pressure, no obligation — just real numbers for your situation.

Frequently Asked Questions

Illinois electricity rates have risen approximately 90-94% since 2021, making Illinois one of the fastest-rising electricity markets in the Midwest. Ameren Illinois residential rates moved from approximately 8¢/kWh all-in in 2021 to approximately 15.5¢/kWh in 2026, a 94% increase. ComEd residential rates moved from similar 2021 levels to approximately 17.07¢/kWh in 2026, a 113% increase. For a typical Illinois household using 1,000 kilowatt-hours per month, that is the difference between an approximately $95 monthly bill five years ago and an approximately $170 monthly bill today — roughly $900 per year in additional electricity cost. The increases are driven by PJM and MISO capacity auction spikes (PJM cleared at $329.17/MW-day and MISO summer at $666.50/MW-day), data center demand (70% of the capacity cost spike per PJM's Independent Market Monitor), and Illinois Commerce Commission-approved delivery rate cases totaling hundreds of millions for both utilities.

Illinois electricity rates have nearly doubled since 2021 due to three compounding forces: PJM and MISO capacity auction spikes, Illinois Commerce Commission-approved delivery rate increases, and surging data center demand. On the supply side, PJM's capacity auction cleared at $329.17 per megawatt-day for 2026-2027 (a 1,000%+ increase from $28.92 two years earlier), and MISO's summer capacity price jumped 22x from $30 to $666.50 per megawatt-day in a single year. On the delivery side, the ICC approved a $243 million ComEd delivery rate hike effective January 2026 and a $48 million Ameren Illinois delivery case in late 2025. Driving the capacity spikes underneath is data center demand: PJM's Independent Market Monitor attributed 70% of the capacity cost increase ($9.3 billion) to data center growth in ComEd territory alone. Together these forces are structural — coal retirements, grid modernization spending, and data center buildout are not temporary trends.

Illinois electricity rates are projected to continue rising at approximately 6% per year on average through 2030 based on historical compounding patterns, meaning a typical $170 monthly Illinois bill in 2026 could reach approximately $230 by 2030 and approximately $305 by 2032 if the trend holds. The underlying drivers are expected to persist: PJM projects data center demand will consume 13% of grid capacity by 2035; coal plant retirements will continue; grid modernization spending by both ComEd and Ameren Illinois is expected to continue filing delivery rate cases with the Illinois Commerce Commission annually. NRDC projects $21.4 billion in cumulative capacity costs for ComEd territory alone between 2028 and 2033. Citizens Utility Board warns rates will stay elevated for at least the next few years. Unlike temporary shocks that eventually resolve, these forces are structural features of the Illinois grid and are unlikely to reverse without major policy intervention.

ComEd and Ameren Illinois have both seen dramatic rate increases since 2021, but the magnitudes and mechanisms differ. ComEd rates have risen approximately 113% (from roughly 8¢/kWh to 17.07¢/kWh all-in), driven primarily by PJM capacity auction prices (the grid operator for ComEd territory) which cleared at $329.17 per megawatt-day for 2026-2027. Ameren Illinois rates have risen approximately 94% (to 15.5¢/kWh all-in), driven by MISO summer capacity prices hitting $666.50 per megawatt-day in 2025-2026 — a 22x single-year spike. ComEd customers face a flatter year-round rate structure, while Ameren customers see seasonal spikes where summer delivery charges jump 71% (from 4.572¢/kWh to 7.811¢/kWh), pushing summer all-in rates to approximately 20¢/kWh. Both utilities are filing additional rate cases with the ICC in 2026. ComEd is expensive year-round; Ameren is cheaper in winter but nearly matches ComEd during summer peak.

The most effective way to protect your household from rising Illinois electric bills is to lock in a fixed electricity rate through a residential solar lease, which sets a rate as low as $0.10 per kilowatt-hour for 15 years with no escalator regardless of how high ComEd or Ameren Illinois rates climb. That locked rate is already 35-40% below current utility rates and the gap widens every year as utility rates continue their historical 6% annual increase pattern. For income-qualified Illinois households, the Solar for All program (ILSFA) provides no-cost solar installation with guaranteed bill savings and requires no credit check — eligibility is set at 80% of Area Median Income by county. Adding battery storage further protects against the grid blackouts that PJM (ComEd's operator) and MISO (Ameren's operator) have warned about due to tightening reserve margins. Cash purchase offers the lowest long-term cost but requires upfront capital.

Illinois electricity rate hikes are unlikely to level off through 2028-2030 based on both utility filings and independent projections from Citizens Utility Board and NRDC. The underlying forces are structural, not temporary. Coal plant retirements outpace new generation additions in both PJM (ComEd's grid) and MISO (Ameren's grid), with MISO's reserve margin dropping from 6.5 gigawatts to 2.6 gigawatts in two years. Data center demand is projected to add 32 gigawatts of peak load by 2030 and consume 13% of grid capacity by 2035 per PJM's long-term load forecast. NRDC projects $21.4 billion in cumulative capacity costs for ComEd territory alone between 2028 and 2033. Ameren Illinois has already told regulators it plans another rate case in 2026 regardless of current outcomes. Absent major policy intervention — which could come from legislation like the POWER Act (SB2181) currently in committee — elevated rates will continue compounding.

A residential solar lease in Illinois saves approximately 35-40% versus current ComEd rates of 17.07¢/kWh and approximately 35% versus Ameren Illinois rates of 15.5¢/kWh in 2026, based on fixed solar lease pricing as low as $0.10 per kilowatt-hour for 15 years. For a typical Belleville household paying $128/month to Ameren Illinois, that is an estimated approximately $700 in year-one electricity savings; for a Naperville household paying $240/month to ComEd, estimated first-year savings exceed $1,400. The savings compound over time because solar lease rates are fixed while utility rates continue rising at approximately 6% per year historically — so year-15 savings significantly exceed year-1 savings. Cash-purchase systems save more in total because there is no monthly lease payment at all after the 4-5 year payback period. Solar for All (ILSFA) households save 100% of the solar payment by state-regulation because the system is no-cost.