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Is a Heat Pump Cheaper Than Propane in Illinois? Yes, by an Estimated $125 to $470 a Year
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Is a Heat Pump Cheaper Than Propane in Illinois? Yes, by an Estimated $125 to $470 a Year

Ryan Cook•

Yes. At 2026 prices, a heat pump heats an Illinois home for roughly half to three-quarters of what propane costs, depending on your utility. Illinois residential propane averaged $1.829 a gallon before taxes on October 5, 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's about $2.11 per 100,000 Btu of heat in a 95 percent furnace. A heat pump delivers the same heat for about $1.05 on Ameren Illinois' winter tier above 800 kWh and about $1.30 on ComEd's electric space heat class. For a home that burns about 530 gallons a winter for heat, my estimate is $290 to $470 a year saved on Ameren or ComEd's space heat class, and $125 to $270 on ComEd's standard class.

That's the opposite of what I told natural gas customers last month. In my heat pump vs gas furnace breakdown, gas still won per unit of heat everywhere in the state. Propane is a different animal. A gallon carries less heat than most people assume, and at last winter's prices a unit of propane heat cost roughly three times what the same heat from Nicor gas did.

Key facts: propane and electric heat in Illinois, fall 2026

Line Figure In effect
Illinois residential propane $1.829/gal, before taxes (vs $1.724 a year earlier) Week of Oct 5, 2026; EIA weekly survey
Last winter's Illinois propane average About $1.90/gal; peak $2.204 Oct 2025 – Mar 2026; peak week of Feb 9, 2026
Average Midwest propane home, this winter 529 gal for heat + 112 gal other uses; $2.036/gal Nov 2026 – Mar 2027 forecast; EIA, Oct 2026
Heat in a gallon of propane 91,452 Btu (1 kWh = 3,412 Btu) EIA conversion
Ameren Illinois electric, winter tiers (est.) About 15.0¢/kWh first 800 kWh, 10.7¢ above Oct 2026 – May 2027 supply; delivery rises slightly with January 2027 bills
ComEd supply + delivery (est.) About 13.3¢/kWh space heat class, 16.4¢ standard 10.103¢ Price to Compare Oct 2026 – May 2027; delivery from April 2026 bills
Ameren propane-to-electric help Heat pump and appliances at little to no cost, income-qualified Ameren HEIQ initiative, current page
Ameren heat pump discount $900 ducted, $630 ductless Instant Incentives, Ameren electric customers
Federal 25C heat pump tax credit Ended for property placed in service after Dec 31, 2025 IRS, OBBB FAQ

Electric figures add each utility's supply, transmission and per-kWh delivery charges, and leave out taxes and the smaller riders. EIA's weekly propane prices exclude taxes too.

The cost per unit of heat, side by side

A furnace and a heat pump sell you the same product, so compare them on the same unit. I use 100,000 Btu, which is one therm. A gallon of propane holds 91,452 Btu, so a therm of fuel at $1.829 a gallon costs $2.00. A 95 percent furnace loses a little up the vent, which brings it to about $2.11 of heat.

A heat pump moves heat rather than burning anything. Its efficiency is its coefficient of performance, or COP. At a COP of 3, it makes three units of heat from one unit of electricity, so a therm of heat takes about 9.8 kWh.

Heating source Cost per 100,000 Btu of heat (est.)
Propane, 95% furnace, $1.829 (Oct 5, 2026) ~$2.11
Propane, 95% furnace, $1.90 (last winter's average) ~$2.19
Propane, 95% furnace, $2.204 (Feb 9, 2026 peak) ~$2.54
Propane, 80% furnace, $1.829 ~$2.50
Heat pump, COP 3, Ameren above 800 kWh (10.7¢) ~$1.05
Heat pump, COP 3, ComEd space heat class (13.3¢) ~$1.30
Heat pump, COP 3, ComEd standard class (16.4¢) ~$1.60
Heat pump, COP 1.9 (a 0–5°F night), Ameren above 800 kWh ~$1.65
Electric baseboard, Ameren above 800 kWh ~$3.14

Look at the second-to-last line. Even on a near-zero night, when a cold-climate heat pump's efficiency sags, it still beats a brand-new propane furnace on Ameren's upper winter tier. Turn the math around and you get the break-even COP, the efficiency a heat pump needs just to tie propane: about 1.5 on Ameren above 800 kWh, 1.85 on ComEd's space heat class and 2.3 on ComEd's standard class. ENERGY STAR's cold-climate label requires at least 1.75 at 5°F, and the Department of Energy's cold-climate field study measured a median of 1.9 between 0°F and 5°F.

If your furnace is an older 80 percent unit, propane looks worse still, and the break-even falls to about 1.25 on Ameren.

What it means for a year's heating bill

The EIA forecasts the average Midwest propane home will burn about 529 gallons for space heat this winter. Assuming a 95 percent furnace, that's about 46 million Btu of delivered heat. A heat pump needs roughly 4,500 to 5,400 kWh to match it, at a season-average COP of 3.0 to 2.5. I priced the propane at last winter's Illinois average of about $1.90, or $1,007 for the heating gallons.

Territory Propane heat (529 gal) Heat pump, COP 2.5 / 3.0 Estimated yearly savings
Ameren Illinois electric (blended 12¢) $1,007 $646 / $539 ~$360 to $470
ComEd, space heat class (13.3¢) $1,007 $716 / $597 ~$290 to $410
ComEd, standard class (16.4¢) $1,007 $883 / $736 ~$125 to $270

The Ameren line uses a blended 12¢ because most heating kilowatt-hours in an Ameren home fall above the 800 kWh winter tier. ComEd's space heat class has a second payoff. A home that heats entirely with electricity is billed the lower delivery charge on every kilowatt-hour, which I estimated at roughly $211 a year for a house using 8,000 kWh on everything else. The catch is that ComEd requires the backup heat to be electric too. I explained the rules in the ComEd electric space heat rate.

My numbers come in under RMI's. Its March 2026 Illinois analysis put average savings for propane homes at about $930 a year. Its assumptions differ from mine, and I'd rather show you the conservative version you can check against your own delivery tickets.

One honest caveat for southern Illinois: a lot of propane homes down there buy electricity from a rural electric cooperative, not Ameren. Co-op rates are set differently, so run the math with your own bill before you trust my Ameren column.

How Illinois propane prices have moved

Propane is priced week to week, and it almost always climbs as the season goes on. Here's the first fall reading and the winter peak for the last five heating seasons, from the EIA's weekly Illinois survey.

Heating season First October price Winter peak
2021–22 $2.122 (Oct 4) $2.504 (Mar 14, 2022)
2022–23 $2.061 (Oct 3) $2.144 (Jan–Feb 2023)
2023–24 $1.766 (Oct 2) $1.946 (Feb 12, 2024)
2024–25 $1.734 (Oct 7) $2.076 (Feb 24, 2025)
2025–26 $1.724 (Oct 6) $2.204 (Feb 9, 2026)
2026–27 $1.829 (Oct 5) —

This fall opened about 6 percent above last fall. The EIA's Midwest forecast calls for a season average about 3 percent below last winter's, but Illinois started the season higher than it did a year ago, so don't count on a cheaper winter. My take: if you're staying on propane this winter, fill the tank early or ask your dealer about a fixed-price contract, and compare it against what they'd charge on a will-call delivery in February.

Keep the propane furnace as backup? Often, yes

With natural gas, I tell people a hybrid heat pump is mostly an air-conditioning upgrade. With propane, it's a real bill cut, because the heat pump wins at almost every outdoor temperature.

On Ameren, a heat pump only needs a COP of about 1.5 to beat propane, so it should carry the house through nearly all of winter. The furnace sits there for the worst cold snap or a breakdown. That also covers you if the power goes out, as long as the furnace blower has backup power. I compared the backup options in generator vs home battery for an Illinois winter outage.

On ComEd, a propane furnace as backup keeps the house in the standard delivery class, where the break-even is about 2.3. Ask the installer to set the switchover temperature where your unit's efficiency drops near that point. Every model's spec sheet lists its efficiency at different outdoor temperatures.

Either way, size the heat pump with a room-by-room load calculation. An undersized unit hands the coldest hours to electric backup strips, which run at a COP of 1, and on ComEd's standard class that's about $4.81 per 100,000 Btu, the most expensive heat on the chart.

Help paying for the switch

The federal 25C credit that covered 30 percent of a heat pump is gone for anything placed in service after December 31, 2025. Here's what's left:

  • Ameren Illinois, Switch from Propane to Electric. Through its Home Efficiency Income Qualified initiative, Ameren offers income-qualified, propane-heated single-family homes a free home energy assessment. Qualifying homes may get an air source heat pump, a heat pump water heater, an induction stove and an electric dryer at little to no cost. You must be an Ameren Illinois residential electric customer and meet income limits based on household size and location. Ameren says you'll get a report on whether the switch should lower your bill before anything is installed.
  • Ameren Instant Incentives. Open to Ameren Illinois electric customers with no income test listed: $900 off a ducted air source heat pump rated at least 15.2 SEER2 and 8.1 HSPF2, and $630 off a ductless unit.
  • ComEd. Its September 2025 home energy customer guide lists heat pump discounts up to $2,000 through ComEd heat pump-trained contractors. Ask for the current 2026 amount in writing.
  • Illinois HEAR. The federally funded electrification rebate for low-income households still hasn't launched. Illinois EPA says its application hasn't been processed by the Department of Energy, and it won't pay rebates retroactively.

If heating bills are already a stretch, LIHEAP helps propane households too. DCEO lets households with less than 25 percent left in their propane tank apply in the early window that opened October 1, 2026, and other income-eligible households can apply starting November 1. I listed the income limits in Illinois electric bill help and income limits.

Where solar fits

Switching off propane moves the whole heating load onto your electric meter, roughly 4,500 to 5,400 kWh a year, nearly all of it from November through March. That's when Illinois panels produce the least. I charted the drop in how Illinois solar production falls in fall and winter.

I'd rather you hear that from me now than discover it on a January bill. Solar on an all-electric farmhouse earns most of its keep from April through September. Over a full year, though, it can offset a real share of the bigger bill. With a $0-down lease, the power the panels make is billed at a predictable rate as low as $0.10 per kWh, your full 25-year rate schedule is set in your contract before you sign, and a battery is included. Solar lease cost per month in Illinois walks through the numbers. If money's tight, check Illinois Solar for All first.

Thinking about leaving propane behind? Send me last winter's propane delivery tickets and a recent Ameren or ComEd bill. I'll show you your real cost per unit of heat, what a heat pump would add to your electric bill, and whether solar makes sense on top. Call (618) 217-2001, run your numbers through the savings calculator, or get in touch here. For the rest of this winter's outlook, see the Illinois winter heating bill forecast and the current Ameren rates and ComEd rates.

Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

Yes, at 2026 prices, and by a wide margin. Illinois residential propane averaged $1.829 a gallon before taxes on October 5, 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In a 95 percent furnace, that works out to about $2.11 for every 100,000 Btu of heat. A heat pump averaging a coefficient of performance of 3 delivers the same heat for about $1.05 on Ameren Illinois' winter tier above 800 kWh, about $1.30 on ComEd's electric space heat class, and about $1.60 on ComEd's standard class. For a home that burns about 530 gallons a winter for heat, my estimate is $290 to $470 a year in savings on Ameren or on ComEd's space heat class, and $125 to $270 on ComEd's standard class. These are estimates before taxes and small riders. Your house, your equipment and the weather will move them.
For a typical propane-heated Midwest home, roughly $1,000 to $1,100 for the heating season, before taxes. The EIA's October 2026 Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts that the average Midwest propane household will use about 529 gallons for space heating from November through March, plus about 112 gallons for water heating, cooking and drying. At last winter's average Illinois residential price of about $1.90 a gallon, those 529 heating gallons cost about $1,007. At the EIA's Midwest forecast price of $2.036, they cost about $1,077. Prices usually climb as winter goes on. Last season the Illinois average rose from $1.738 in early December to $2.204 on February 9, 2026, about 27 percent. A bigger or leakier house, a colder January, or a will-call delivery in a cold snap can push your bill well past the average.
Yes, for income-qualified households. Ameren Illinois' Home Efficiency Income Qualified initiative serves propane-heated homes through a Switch from Propane to Electric offer. Ameren says eligible customers must live in a single-family home, be an Ameren Illinois residential electric customer heating with propane, and meet household income limits based on size and location. Those who qualify get a free home energy assessment and may receive an air source heat pump, a heat pump water heater, an induction stove and an electric dryer at little to no cost. Ameren also says each customer gets a report showing whether the switch should lower their energy bill before anything is installed. Above the income limits, Ameren's Instant Incentives list a $900 discount on a qualifying ducted air source heat pump and $630 on a ductless unit for Ameren Illinois electric customers.
It's a reasonable setup, as long as the heat pump does nearly all the work. At October 2026 prices, propane in a 95 percent furnace costs about $2.11 per 100,000 Btu of heat. A heat pump beats that whenever its efficiency stays above a coefficient of performance of about 1.5 on Ameren's winter tier above 800 kWh, about 1.85 on ComEd's space heat class, and about 2.3 on ComEd's standard class. ENERGY STAR's cold-climate label requires at least 1.75 at 5°F. That means on Ameren, the heat pump should carry the house through almost every hour of winter, with the furnace held for the deepest cold or a breakdown. On ComEd, a furnace backup keeps you in the standard delivery class, so ask the installer to set the switchover temperature around the point where your unit's efficiency drops near 2.3.
It adds roughly 4,500 to 5,400 kWh a year for a home that burns about 530 gallons of propane for heat, and nearly all of it lands from November through March. That estimate assumes the old furnace was 95 percent efficient and the heat pump averages a coefficient of performance of 2.5 to 3 over the season. If the old furnace was an 80 percent unit, the house needs less heat than the gallons suggest, closer to 3,800 to 4,500 kWh. On Ameren Illinois, most of those winter kilowatt-hours land above the 800 kWh tier, about 10.7 cents before taxes. The propane bill shrinks or goes away, and the electric bill grows. If you add solar, remember Illinois panels produce the least in those same months, so size it with the bigger winter load in mind.

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The Illinois roof-age rule, and how to sequence both jobs to pay once.Can You Rent Solar Panels in Illinois? What Actually Exists in 2026There's no such thing as renting solar panels in Illinois. But there is Community Solar — a state-vetted subscription that gets you bill credits without any equipment. Here's how it actually works.New Illinois Laws: A Family of Four Earning $99,000 Can Now Get Help With Their Electric BillPritzker signed HB 4456 and HB 5524 on July 9. One raises energy-assistance income limits to 300% of poverty. The other itemizes every charge on your bill.Do Solar Panels Increase Your Property Taxes in Illinois? (2026)Adding solar raises your home's value — so will your property taxes jump too? In Illinois, no. The state's special solar assessment keeps that value off your tax bill.New Illinois Solar for All Income Limits (2026): $97,200 for a Cook County Family of FourIllinois Solar for All raised its income limits on June 1, 2026. A family of four can earn $97,200 in Cook County and still qualify. Here are the county numbers.Will Illinois Have Rolling Blackouts? What ComEd's 'Critical Level' Alerts Mean (2026)ComEd told parts of Chicagoland the grid hit a 'critical level' during the July heat wave. Here's the honest answer on rolling blackout risk in Illinois — and what you can control.Freedom Forever Filed for Bankruptcy — What Illinois Solar Customers Should Do NowFreedom Forever filed Chapter 11 in April 2026. If your Illinois solar system is installed, unfinished, or under quote — here's exactly what to do next.ComEd & Ameren Want Another Rate Hike — CUB Found $1 Billion in Questionable SpendingComEd filed a $15.3B grid plan and Ameren wants millions more — CUB found over $1 billion in questionable spending. What the next IL rate hikes mean for you.What Solar Panels Really Cost in Illinois in 2026 (Honest Numbers, No Lead-Selling)What solar panels actually cost in Illinois in 2026 — real per-watt and per-system numbers, what changed this year, and why we don't sell your info to five callers.Illinois Electric Rates Keep Climbing — Does Solar Finally Make Sense in 2026?Ameren and ComEd rates are up ~90% in five years and still climbing. Here's how to see what you're on track to overpay — and whether solar finally makes sense.Illinois Net Metering Changed in 2025 — What It Costs You and How to Protect Your SavingsIllinois ended full retail net metering on Jan 1, 2025. Here's what the switch to net billing actually costs solar owners — and how to protect your savings.The 30% Solar Tax Credit Ended — Here's How Illinois Homeowners Still Get It in 2026The 30% federal tax credit ended for homeowner-owned systems on Dec 31, 2025. Here's how Illinois homeowners can still capture federal solar value in 2026.How Much Does a Solar Lease Cost Per Month in Illinois? (2026)What does a solar lease actually cost per month in Illinois? Real 2026 numbers, what's included, and how a predictable lease rate compares to a rising utility bill.Ameren vs ComEd 2026: Which Costs More Per kWh? (ComEd Runs ~1.5¢ Higher)ComEd averages ~17¢/kWh, Ameren Illinois ~15.5¢/kWh. See the full 2026 breakdown: supply charges, delivery fees, summer spikes, and how much it costs per month.Ameren Rate Increase 2026: Summer Rate Ends — Oct 1 Price to Compare Is 10.441¢ (ComEd 10.103¢)Updated September 30, 2026: the Ameren rate increase put the summer Price to Compare at 11.326¢/kWh (ComEd 10.399¢) through September 30; from October 1 it is 10.441¢ (ComEd 10.103¢). See the average Illinois electric rate now, why bills jumped June 1, and what changed October 1.The Iran War Is Sending Oil Prices Through the Roof — Will Your Illinois Electric Bill Follow?Oil is at $112/barrel after the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Here's how the Iran conflict could push Illinois electricity rates even higher — and what you can do now.Why Your Ameren Bill Keeps Going Up (and What MISO Has to Do With It)Ameren bills jumped 18-22% in summer 2025 and rose again June 1, 2026. Here's why MISO capacity auctions are driving your rates up and what you can do about it.The Real Cost of Solar Panels in Illinois: 2026 BreakdownWhat do solar panels actually cost in Illinois in 2026? Real numbers for cash purchase, lease, and Solar for All — from an installer who gets prices below the state average.Selling a House With Leased Solar Panels in Illinois (2026 Guide)Selling a house with leased solar panels in Illinois? Here's how the lease transfer works, what buyers actually think, and why it's not the problem most people expect — owned systems too.Solar Lease vs Buying Panels: I Did the Math for IllinoisShould you lease or buy solar panels in Illinois? I broke down the real numbers for both paths using current 2026 prices, incentives, and Ameren/ComEd rates.Data Centers = 70% of Illinois's Rate Spike (Here's What It Costs You)Data centers drove 70% of Illinois's capacity-cost spike in 2026. See the PJM/MISO mechanism, the per-household cost impact, and what to do to protect your bill.ComEd Rate Increase 2026: Oct 1 Supply Drops to 10.103¢, but Delivery Didn'tUpdated Oct 2026: ComEd's 2026 rate increase put the Price to Compare at 10.399¢/kWh through September 30; from October 1 it is 10.103¢/kWh. What changed June 1, what reset October 1, the ICC delivery increases that didn't reset, and your all-in cost per kWh.Illinois Electricity Rates Have Nearly Doubled Since 2021 — Here's What That Means for Your BillIllinois electricity rates have surged 90%+ since 2021. Here's what's driving the increases, what to expect next, and how to protect your household.Illinois Solar Incentives 2026: 7 Programs Worth $12,000-$18,000+Illinois solar incentives 2026: Illinois Shines RECs, the new $20/REC customer-owned adder, $300/kW DG rebate, battery rebate, net metering, and property tax exemption — worth $12,000-$18,000+ on an owned system. Plus no-cost Solar for All for income-eligible households.Solar Battery Backup in Illinois — What It Actually Powers and Whether It's Worth ItWhat does a solar battery actually run during an outage? How much does it cost with the $300/kWh rebate? Here's the honest breakdown for Illinois homeowners.
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