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Will Illinois Heating Bills Be Higher This Winter? Gas Down About 10%, Electric Heat Up About 3% (2026–27 Forecast)
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Will Illinois Heating Bills Be Higher This Winter? Gas Down About 10%, Electric Heat Up About 3% (2026–27 Forecast)

Ryan Cook••

Probably not, unless you heat with electricity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Winter Fuels Outlook, released October 6, 2026, forecasts that the average Midwest home heating with natural gas will spend about $613 from November through March, down 9.9% from about $680 last winter. Propane homes come in about 4% lower. Homes that heat with electricity are the exception: EIA expects them to spend about $1,380, up 3%. In Illinois, a Peoples Gas rate case due around December and Nicor's settlement, approved October 15, could eat part of the gas savings before spring.

I sell solar across Illinois, and from now until March the bill people hand me is usually a gas bill. So here's what the federal forecast says, what it looks like on a Nicor, Peoples Gas or Ameren bill at this month's prices, and the part the national forecast leaves out.

Key facts: Illinois heating costs, winter 2026–27

Item Figure Period / source date
Midwest gas-heated home, winter spending $613 forecast vs $680 last winter (−9.9%) Nov–Mar; EIA, Oct 6, 2026
Midwest electric-heated home, winter spending $1,380 forecast vs $1,339 last winter (+3.0%) Nov–Mar; EIA, Oct 6, 2026
Midwest propane-heated home, winter spending $1,305 forecast vs $1,365 last winter (−4.3%) Nov–Mar; EIA, Oct 6, 2026
Nicor Gas supply price 33¢ per therm (Nov–Mar last winter averaged 44.45¢) October 2026; ICC
Peoples Gas supply price 32.83¢ per therm (Nov–Mar last winter averaged 39.28¢) October 2026; ICC
Ameren Illinois gas supply price (GDS-1) 45.235¢ per therm (January 2026 was 48.357¢) October 2026; Ameren
Peoples Gas rate case $144M requested, about $7–$8 a month, decision expected by December Peoples Gas, July 14, 2026
Nicor Gas rate case Settlement approved: about $2.21 a month on average; customer charge $21.30 → $15.00 from Nov 16 ICC, Oct 15, 2026; Nicor

What EIA actually forecast for the Midwest

EIA counts Illinois in its Midwest region, and its winter runs November 1 through March 31. The forecast assumes a winter about like last one. In EIA's words, "We assume temperatures in the Midwest and South are similar to last year," and its Midwest heating degree days come in about 2% lower.

Midwest home heating mainly with… Last winter (2025–26) This winter forecast (2026–27) Change
Natural gas $680 $613 −9.9%
Electricity $1,339 $1,380 +3.0%
Propane $1,365 $1,305 −4.3%

The gas number falls mostly on price. EIA expects the Midwest residential gas price to drop from $11.27 to $10.38 per thousand cubic feet, about 8%, while use dips about 2%. Electricity goes the other way: the Midwest residential price rises from 16.25¢ to 16.87¢ per kWh, about 4%.

One thing to know about these figures. EIA's per-home gas use includes the water heater and other gas appliances, and its electric figure includes lights and everything else in the house. They're whole-house bills for the heating season, not furnace-only.

What that looks like on an Illinois gas bill

Illinois gas bills have two halves: a delivery half the utility sets through rate cases, and a supply half that moves every month. The supply half is where this winter's relief shows up. October's supply prices are 25.8% below last winter's November–March average on Nicor, 16.4% below on Peoples Gas, and 21.5% below on North Shore Gas, per the Illinois Commerce Commission's monthly table. Ameren's October gas charge is about 6.5% under January's.

Here's EIA's Midwest-average home, about 612 therms over the five months, priced at each utility's October 2026 rates.

Utility Per-therm delivery + October supply Monthly customer charge Est. Nov–Mar total Supply savings vs last winter's prices
Nicor Gas 24.44¢ + 33.00¢ = 57.44¢ $21.30 about $458 about $70
Peoples Gas 46.583¢ + 8.257¢ storage + 32.83¢ = 87.67¢ $25.81 about $666 about $39
Ameren Illinois gas 48.344¢ + 45.235¢ = 93.58¢ $23.96 about $693 about $19 (vs January's price)

These leave out taxes and the smaller riders, which add real money. Treat them as a floor, too. Gas supply prices usually climb into the coldest months. Last winter Nicor's went from 39¢ in November to 53.23¢ in February.

The spread between utilities is bigger than any year-over-year change. A Nicor home and a Peoples Gas home burning the same gas can be $200 apart for the winter, almost all of it in delivery charges.

The part the national forecast leaves out: two rate cases

EIA forecasts fuel prices. It doesn't know about Illinois delivery rate cases, and two big ones land this winter.

Peoples Gas (Chicago) filed for $202 million in January, then cut the request to $144 million on July 14, 2026. The company puts the typical residential impact at $7 to $8 a month and says the Commission's decision "is expected by December," with new rates in "late 2026 or early 2027."

Nicor Gas (most of northern Illinois outside Chicago) filed for about $221 million on January 9, 2026. On October 15 the Commission approved a settlement striking $139.2 million from it. Nicor puts the average residential impact at about $2.21 a month, and the fixed customer charge drops from $21.30 to $15.00 on November 16. Details are in the Nicor settlement breakdown.

Do the math on Peoples. If $7 to $8 a month starts in January, that's $21 to $24 by the end of March, more than half of the roughly $39 supply savings above. The Commission usually approves less than utilities ask, so the final numbers may be smaller. My take: a Chicago gas bill this winter likely ends up close to last winter's. Nicor homes keep more of the drop.

Electric heat: the one group paying more

About 7.2 million Midwest homes heat mainly with electricity, and that count is growing. EIA's average one uses about 8,180 kWh from November through March. In Illinois, what you pay for those kilowatt-hours depends a lot on your utility and your rate class.

Electric-heat home, ~8,180 kWh Nov–Mar Supply + delivery per kWh (est.) Est. winter total
Ameren Illinois ~15.0¢ first 800 kWh a month, ~10.7¢ above about $1,050
ComEd, electric space heat rate ~13.3¢ about $1,090
ComEd, standard rate ~16.4¢ about $1,340

Those use the October 2026 prices to compare (Ameren 10.441¢ / 8.262¢, ComEd 10.103¢) plus each utility's non-summer delivery charge, and they leave out fixed charges, riders and taxes. Ameren's delivery charges also tick up slightly with January bills.

The ComEd gap is the one to check. A home that heats entirely with electricity can be billed delivery at 3.215¢ per kWh instead of 6.333¢, on every kilowatt-hour in the house. For this home that's about $250 over the winter, before the class's slightly higher fixed charges. I've seen all-electric houses that were never moved into that class. Here's how to check your ComEd electric space heat rate.

Propane homes

Out past the gas mains, the forecast is mildly good news. EIA has the Midwest propane price at about $2.04 a gallon before taxes, down about 3%, and winter spending at $1,305. That's still about twice what a gas-heated home spends. Propane and electric baseboard are where a heat pump earns its keep most clearly, which I covered in heat pump vs. gas furnace costs in Illinois.

If January turns cold

EIA also ran a colder-winter case. In it, Midwest gas homes spend about $652, only about 4% below last winter, and electric-heat homes spend about $1,446, up 8%. A cold snap hits electric heat hardest, because heat pumps lose efficiency as it gets colder and baseboard backup kicks in.

Three things worth doing before December:

  • Check your budget billing anniversary. A settle-up after a high-priced summer can land on a winter bill. How Illinois budget billing settle-ups work.
  • Apply for help early if money is tight. LIHEAP's 2026–27 applications opened October 1, 2026 for priority households, with everyone else eligible from November 1, and LIHEAP households automatically qualify for their utility's low-income discount. Details and income limits are in Illinois electric bill help.
  • Know the winter shut-off rules. Protections start December 1, and fall is the gap. When Illinois utilities can disconnect you.

Where solar fits, and where it doesn't

Solar panels won't touch a gas bill. If your furnace burns gas, the forecast above is your winter, and panels on the roof don't change it.

For electric-heat homes it's a different story, with one honest caveat. December through February is only about 17 to 19% of a year's solar production in Illinois (federal PVWatts estimates, Chicago to Belleville), so panels won't carry a January bill. They earn their keep from spring through early fall, and summer is when Illinois electricity prices peak. I charted the drop in how Illinois solar production falls in fall and winter.

What a lease changes is the price, not the season. With a $0-down lease, the power your panels make is billed at a predictable rate as low as $0.10 per kWh, with a battery included and the full 25-year rate schedule set in your contract before you sign. That's the opposite of a winter where the forecast's one rising line is the price of electricity.

Want to know what your own house will cost to heat this winter? Send me your last gas bill and your last ComEd or Ameren bill, and I'll show you your real per-therm and per-kWh prices and which rate class you're in. Call (618) 217-2001, run your numbers through the savings calculator, or get in touch here. For this fall's electric prices, see the Ameren and ComEd October 2026 rates.

Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

For most Illinois homes, probably not, unless you heat with electricity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Winter Fuels Outlook, released October 6, 2026, forecasts that the average Midwest home heating with natural gas will spend about $613 on gas from November through March, down 9.9 percent from about $680 last winter, mainly because the price of gas is expected to fall about 8 percent. Propane homes are forecast to spend about 4 percent less. Homes that heat with electricity are the exception: EIA expects them to spend about $1,380, up 3 percent, because electricity prices keep climbing. Two Illinois details sit on top of that forecast. Peoples Gas has a delivery rate increase waiting on an Illinois Commerce Commission decision due around December, Nicor Gas's settlement was approved October 15, and a colder-than-normal winter would cut the gas savings to about 4 percent. These are forecasts and averages, not a promise for any one house.
For a gas-heated home using the EIA's Midwest average of about 59 thousand cubic feet, roughly 612 therms, from November through March, my estimate at October 2026 prices is about $458 on Nicor Gas, $666 on Peoples Gas, and $693 on Ameren Illinois gas. That includes each utility's monthly customer charge, its per-therm delivery charge and October's gas supply price, but not taxes or the smaller riders, which add more. That gas figure covers the whole house, water heater included, not just the furnace. Supply prices change every month and usually rise in the coldest stretch, so treat these as a floor rather than a ceiling. A home that heats with electricity uses about 8,180 kWh over the same five months by EIA's Midwest average, which works out to roughly $1,050 on Ameren Illinois and about $1,090 on ComEd's electric space heat rate before fixed charges and taxes.
Nicor's is approved, and the Peoples Gas decision is due this winter. Peoples Gas filed for a $202 million increase in January 2026, then cut the request to $144 million on July 14. The company says that would add about $7 to $8 a month for a typical residential customer, that the Illinois Commerce Commission's decision is expected by December, and that new rates, if approved, would take effect in late 2026 or early 2027. Nicor Gas filed for about $221 million on January 9, 2026. On October 15 the Commission approved a settlement striking $139.2 million from it. Nicor puts the average residential impact at about $2.21 a month, and the fixed customer charge drops from $21.30 to $15.00 on November 16. The Commission often approves less than a utility asks for, so the Peoples increase may be smaller too. Either way, both land in the middle of heating season.
Gas is still cheaper per unit of heat almost everywhere in Illinois, and this winter's forecast widens the gap a little. EIA expects the Midwest gas price to fall about 8 percent, to $10.38 per thousand cubic feet, which is about $1 per therm, while the residential electricity price rises about 4 percent, to 16.87 cents per kWh. In Illinois terms, a therm of gas costs roughly 57 cents on Nicor, 88 cents on Peoples Gas and 94 cents on Ameren in October before taxes, while a therm's worth of electric heat, about 29.3 kWh, costs far more through baseboard heaters. A heat pump narrows that gap because it moves heat instead of making it. It saves money mainly when the switch lets you close the gas account, or for homes now on propane or electric baseboard. I ran that math by utility in a separate heat pump guide.

Related City Guides

Chicago, ILEvanston, ILNaperville, ILAurora, ILRockford, ILJoliet, ILPeoria, ILSpringfield, ILChampaign, ILBloomington, ILDecatur, ILBelleville, ILQuincy, ILCarbondale, IL

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Here's how Illinois homeowners can still capture federal solar value in 2026.How Much Does a Solar Lease Cost Per Month in Illinois? (2026)What does a solar lease actually cost per month in Illinois? Real 2026 numbers, what's included, and how a predictable lease rate compares to a rising utility bill.Ameren vs ComEd 2026: Which Costs More Per kWh? (ComEd Runs ~1.5¢ Higher)ComEd averages ~17¢/kWh, Ameren Illinois ~15.5¢/kWh. See the full 2026 breakdown: supply charges, delivery fees, summer spikes, and how much it costs per month.Ameren Rate Increase 2026: Summer Rate Ends — Oct 1 Price to Compare Is 10.441¢ (ComEd 10.103¢)Updated September 30, 2026: the Ameren rate increase put the summer Price to Compare at 11.326¢/kWh (ComEd 10.399¢) through September 30; from October 1 it is 10.441¢ (ComEd 10.103¢). See the average Illinois electric rate now, why bills jumped June 1, and what changed October 1.The Iran War Is Sending Oil Prices Through the Roof — Will Your Illinois Electric Bill Follow?Oil is at $112/barrel after the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Here's how the Iran conflict could push Illinois electricity rates even higher — and what you can do now.Why Your Ameren Bill Keeps Going Up (and What MISO Has to Do With It)Ameren bills jumped 18-22% in summer 2025 and rose again June 1, 2026. Here's why MISO capacity auctions are driving your rates up and what you can do about it.The Real Cost of Solar Panels in Illinois: 2026 BreakdownWhat do solar panels actually cost in Illinois in 2026? Real numbers for cash purchase, lease, and Solar for All — from an installer who gets prices below the state average.Selling a House With Leased Solar Panels in Illinois (2026 Guide)Selling a house with leased solar panels in Illinois? Here's how the lease transfer works, what buyers actually think, and why it's not the problem most people expect — owned systems too.Solar Lease vs Buying Panels: I Did the Math for IllinoisShould you lease or buy solar panels in Illinois? I broke down the real numbers for both paths using current 2026 prices, incentives, and Ameren/ComEd rates.Data Centers = 70% of Illinois's Rate Spike (Here's What It Costs You)Data centers drove 70% of Illinois's capacity-cost spike in 2026. See the PJM/MISO mechanism, the per-household cost impact, and what to do to protect your bill.ComEd Rate Increase 2026: Oct 1 Supply Drops to 10.103¢, but Delivery Didn'tUpdated Oct 2026: ComEd's 2026 rate increase put the Price to Compare at 10.399¢/kWh through September 30; from October 1 it is 10.103¢/kWh. What changed June 1, what reset October 1, the ICC delivery increases that didn't reset, and your all-in cost per kWh.Illinois Electricity Rates Have Nearly Doubled Since 2021 — Here's What That Means for Your BillIllinois electricity rates have surged 90%+ since 2021. Here's what's driving the increases, what to expect next, and how to protect your household.Illinois Solar Incentives 2026: 7 Programs Worth $12,000-$18,000+Illinois solar incentives 2026: Illinois Shines RECs, the new $20/REC customer-owned adder, $300/kW DG rebate, battery rebate, net metering, and property tax exemption — worth $12,000-$18,000+ on an owned system. Plus no-cost Solar for All for income-eligible households.Solar Battery Backup in Illinois — What It Actually Powers and Whether It's Worth ItWhat does a solar battery actually run during an outage? How much does it cost with the $300/kWh rebate? Here's the honest breakdown for Illinois homeowners.
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