Can Solar Panels Run a Heat Pump in Illinois? Only With Summer Credits, and Here's the Math
guide10 min read

Can Solar Panels Run a Heat Pump in Illinois? Only With Summer Credits, and Here's the Math

Ryan Cook•

Solar panels can run a heat pump in Illinois over a full year, but not in January. A heat pump adds an estimated 5,600 to 6,700 kWh a year to a home that used to heat with gas, and about 81% of Chicago's normal heating demand falls between November and March, when panels make the least. What makes it work is the bill-credit bank: panels sized for the heat pump overproduce from spring through fall, and those credits pay for winter. Credits only cover part of the bill, though, so I'll show you the month-by-month math and the ComEd rate class that cuts the rest.

I get this question a lot from people pricing a heat pump with a utility rebate. A lot of the answers online are national averages or come from the UK. Illinois winters and Illinois billing rules change the answer.

Air-source heat pump condenser in the snow beside an Illinois home with solar panels on the roof

The numbers this is built on

Fact Figure Source and date
Heat pump electricity added to a gas-heat home est. 5,600 to 6,700 kWh/yr (6,000 used below) Our heat pump vs. gas furnace breakdown, Sept. 2026
Chicago O'Hare heating degree days, Nov. to Mar. 4,839 of 5,974 a year (81%) NWS Chicago, 1991–2020 normals
Solar output, south-facing, 30° tilt 1,342 kWh per kW a year (Chicago); 1,430 (Belleville) PVWatts v8
Solar output per kW, December about 66 kWh (Chicago); about 85 kWh (Belleville) PVWatts v8
ComEd credits for systems connected Jan. 1, 2025 or later Offset the Supply section; do not expire ComEd Net Metering FAQ (2026 edition)
ComEd delivery, single-family 6.333¢/kWh standard; 3.215¢/kWh electric space heat ComEd delivery guide, bills from April 2026
ComEd price to compare 10.103¢/kWh Oct. 1, 2026 – May 31, 2027 (Plug In Illinois)

Why winter is the whole problem

Heat pump electricity follows the cold, and the cold in Illinois is lopsided. The National Weather Service's 1991–2020 normals give Chicago O'Hare 5,974 heating degree days a year. January alone has 1,234. July has 2. Rockford runs colder still, at 6,497.

Solar does the opposite. A south-facing kilowatt of panels in Chicago makes about 153 kWh in July and about 66 in December, according to PVWatts.

I spread a 6,000 kWh heat pump across the year in proportion to those degree days. January comes out around 1,240 kWh of heat pump use. Each kilowatt of panels makes about 75 kWh that month. Covering January's heating in January would take about 16.6 kW, roughly 41 panels. Almost nobody has the roof for that, and you'd be drowning in surplus by June.

And the real January is a little worse than my model. A heat pump gets less efficient as it gets colder. ENERGY STAR's cold-climate label only requires a coefficient of performance of 1.75 at 5°F, so the deep-cold days use more electricity per unit of heat than the season average.

How the summer bank carries the winter

Here's the same Chicago-area house with a system sized for the heat pump: the average Illinois home's 693 kWh a month plus 6,000 kWh of heat pump, about 14,300 kWh a year. That's 27 panels of 400 watts (10.8 kW), facing south. I held the rest of the house flat at 693 kWh a month so the heat pump's effect stands out.

Month Panels make (est.) House uses (est.) Credit bank at month end (est.)
April 1,378 kWh 1,163 kWh 215 kWh
June 1,511 kWh 724 kWh 1,568 kWh
August 1,488 kWh 697 kWh 3,316 kWh
October 1,089 kWh 1,050 kWh 3,926 kWh
November 844 kWh 1,409 kWh 3,361 kWh
December 710 kWh 1,767 kWh 2,304 kWh
January 806 kWh 1,932 kWh 1,178 kWh
February 994 kWh 1,712 kWh 460 kWh
March 1,218 kWh 1,505 kWh 173 kWh

The bank peaks around 3,900 kWh at the end of October, then the heat pump spends it down to almost nothing by spring. Over the year the panels make an estimated 14,489 kWh against 14,316 used.

That only works because ComEd's credits stick around. Its net metering FAQ says credits "do not expire for customers who interconnected on January 1, 2025 or later." If you have an older system on fixed pricing, your kWh credits reset each April or October, and an October date would wipe the bank right before you need it. I wrote up how to check which date you have.

What the credits don't cover

This is the part the national guides skip. Since 2025, new ComEd solar customers get credits that "offset charges in the Supply section of the bill." Ameren says its new customers receive "only supply and transmission service credits." So your summer surplus can pay for winter supply. It doesn't pay delivery on the power the grid sends you in December. The 2025 net metering change explains why.

In the table above, the months where the house uses more than the panels make add up to about 3,750 kWh of grid power. That's a floor, by the way. A heat pump runs hard at night, when panels make nothing, so the grid delivers more than the monthly totals show.

Delivery on just that 3,750 kWh, before the fixed charges:

  • ComEd standard single-family class (6.333¢ plus 0.128¢ tax): about $242 a winter
  • ComEd electric space heat class (3.215¢ plus 0.136¢ tax): about $126 a winter

I think that second line is the most underused number in Illinois home electrification.

Ask ComEd for the space-heat rate

ComEd's wording: customers "who install an electric heat pump that converts their heating system, including any back-up and/or secondary heating, to all-electric qualify for the electric space heat rate." It costs about $3.17 a month more in fixed charges and cuts delivery roughly in half, and ComEd says it lowers the cost of "the entire electricity consumption, not just the heating and cooling."

Two warnings. A dual-fuel system that keeps a gas furnace as backup doesn't meet that "all-electric" test. And don't assume the change happens on its own. ComEd's advice is to call 1-800-EDISON1 to see if you qualify, so call after the install and check the rate description under Charge Details on your next bill. I walked through the full class comparison in ComEd's electric space heat rate explained.

The expensive mistake: sizing solar to last year's bill

Solar quotes are usually designed off your last 12 months of usage. If those months were gas-heated, the design won't include the heat pump.

Same house, but with the 15-panel system sized to its old 8,316 kWh a year, and the heat pump added afterward. My model leaves an estimated 6,270 kWh a year the panels never cover. At ComEd's 10.103¢ price to compare plus standard delivery, that's roughly $1,040 a year before taxes and riders, or about $840 on the space-heat class.

Adding panels later is possible, but it usually means another permit, another interconnection application and another truck roll. If a heat pump is coming in the next couple of years, tell your solar company now and design for it. The how many solar panels do I need table has an "average home plus a heat pump" row for this reason.

Downstate is a gentler version

Ameren Illinois homes have two things going for them. Panels make more in winter: about 85 kWh per kilowatt in December in Belleville against about 66 in Chicago. And Ameren's winter pricing rewards heavy use. From October through May, kWh above 800 a month cost 8.262¢ for supply plus 2.427¢ for delivery (2.488¢ on 2027 bills), about 10.7¢ before taxes and riders. Those are the kWh a heat pump adds.

In Ameren territory, then, the winter gap stings less, and solar earns its keep in summer, when delivery runs 7.811¢ (8.009¢ on 2027 bills). My heat pump rebates guide covers what Ameren and ComEd pay toward the unit itself.

Where a battery fits, and where it doesn't

A home battery moves power by hours, not by seasons. It can push afternoon solar into the evening when the heat pump kicks on, and it keeps the house running in an outage. It can't carry October's surplus into January. The winter gap in my example is hundreds of times what a home battery holds. The credit bank does the seasonal work. See how big a battery you actually need for the daily math.

My take

If you're going all-electric, solar and a heat pump belong in the same conversation. One adds winter load. The other banks summer credits to cover it. Price them separately and you'll probably get the sizing wrong.

For a lot of families I'd lead with a lease here. It's $0 down, a battery is included, and the 25-year term means your power is billed at a predictable rate, as low as $0.10 per kWh, with the full schedule set in your contract before you sign. The company that owns the panels takes on the equipment risk, and the design can be built around the heat pump from day one. If you'd rather own, the same sizing rule applies. Our lease vs. buy breakdown lays them side by side, and Illinois Solar for All is worth a look first if money's tight.

Send me a recent gas bill and a recent ComEd or Ameren bill. I'll estimate what a heat pump would add, how many panels it takes to cover it, and which rate class you should be in. Call (618) 217-2001, run your numbers through the savings calculator, or get in touch here.

All production, usage and dollar figures are estimates from public data and a simplified monthly model, not a quote. Your home's numbers will differ.

Sources

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Frequently Asked Questions

Over a full year, yes. In the middle of winter, no, and the difference matters. An Illinois heat pump adds an estimated 5,600 to 6,700 kWh a year, and about 81% of Chicago's normal heating demand falls between November and March, when panels make the least. In my Chicago model, a January heat pump uses about 1,240 kWh while each kilowatt of panels makes only about 75 kWh that month, so covering January in January would take roughly 41 panels. What actually works is banking summer surplus as bill credits and spending it in winter. A 27-panel system sized for the heat pump banked about 3,900 kWh of credits by the end of October in my estimate and carried the house to spring. You still pay delivery charges on the power the grid sends you in winter, so it is never a zero bill.
Roughly 11 to 12 more 400-watt panels than you'd need without one, on a south-facing roof. The math is straightforward. A heat pump adds an estimated 6,000 kWh a year to a home that used to heat with gas, and the federal PVWatts calculator puts a south-facing, 30-degree array at 1,342 kWh a year per kilowatt in Chicago and 1,430 in Belleville. That works out to about 4.5 extra kilowatts up north. For the average Illinois home, that takes the system from about 15 panels to about 26 or 27. National guides often quote 8 to 11 panels for a heat pump, but one national guide builds that on a U.S.-median heat pump and 450-watt panels, not an Illinois winter. Your own number depends on the size of the house, how well it's insulated, and whether the heat pump replaces gas or propane. Bring a gas bill and an electric bill to the design conversation.
For new ComEd solar customers, yes. ComEd's net metering FAQ says credits, whether kWh or monetary, do not expire for customers who interconnected on January 1, 2025 or later. That is what a heat pump household needs, because the panels overproduce from April through October and the heat pump draws that bank down from November through March. There's a catch on value. Since 2025, new customers' credits offset charges in the Supply section of the bill only, and Ameren says new customers receive supply and transmission credits. Delivery charges still apply to the power the grid delivers to you. Older systems are different. Customers interconnected before 2025 on fixed pricing have kWh credits that reset each April or October. If you have one of those, call and confirm which date is on your account before winter.
Yes, if the heat pump makes your heating fully electric. ComEd says customers who install an electric heat pump that converts their heating system, including any backup or secondary heating, to all-electric qualify for the electric space heat rate. On bills from April 2026, delivery on that class runs 3.215 cents per kWh plus a 0.136-cent distribution tax for a single-family home, against 6.333 cents plus 0.128 cents on the standard class. Fixed charges run about $3.17 a month higher, and ComEd says the lower rate applies to the home's entire electricity use, not just the heating. The catch is that a dual-fuel setup with a gas furnace as backup doesn't meet that all-electric test. To ask whether your home qualifies, ComEd's number is 1-800-EDISON1. With solar in the picture, the space-heat class roughly halves delivery on every winter kWh you pull from the grid.

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Illinois Part 466 and Ameren's own guide set real deadlines — 15 business days for a Level 1 witness test.Solar Won't Zero Out Your Illinois Electric Bill — the State's Own Example Shows WhySolar offsets the supply half of your Illinois bill, not the delivery half. The state's own net metering example shows which kilowatt-hours you still pay for.Does Illinois Homeowners Insurance Cover Solar Panels? The $14,000 vs $4,000 Roof ClauseIllinois insurers are moving roofs to actual cash value. The state's own example pays $14,000 on one roof and $4,000 on another. Here's what that does to solar.Illinois Will Pay About $4,050 Toward a Home Battery — Here's What ComEd and Ameren Want in ReturnComEd and Ameren both pay $300 per kWh toward home battery storage in Illinois. The rebate is real — but each utility attaches conditions almost nobody mentions.Your Illinois HOA Can't Ban Solar — and It Has 30 Days to Answer YouIllinois law bars an HOA from prohibiting solar panels, caps design rules at a 10% production loss, and gives boards 30 days to process your application.ComEd Now Charges Four Different Prices a Day — Who Wins on Time-of-Day PricingComEd's Time-of-Day pricing splits the day into four price windows, cheapest overnight. Who actually saves, who pays more, and how solar fits in.Illinois Will Help Churches, Food Pantries, and Libraries Go Solar — Applications Open August 3Illinois Solar for All opens its Non-Profit and Public Facilities window August 3, 2026. Who qualifies, what it costs, and why the date matters.Your Illinois Electric Rate Drops October 1 — Why Your Bill Won't Drop as MuchIllinois summer supply rates expire September 30. Ameren's fell 31% last October — but supply is only half your bill. Here's what actually drops.Who Fixes Your Solar Panels in Illinois When Something Breaks?Who actually fixes solar panels in Illinois? Maintenance costs, what a lease covers, and what to do if your installer stopped answering the phone.Will Your Illinois Electric Bill Go Back Down? PJM Just Locked In Prices Through 2029PJM's July 2026 capacity auction cleared at $325/MW-day for 2028-29 — the third straight auction at the price cap. Why your Illinois bill isn't dropping soon.Illinois Logged 832 Solar Complaints in 2025 and Has Paid $473,000 Back to Burned Customers — What Actually Went Wrong, and Who Gets PaidIllinois logged 832 solar complaints in 2025, and its restitution fund has paid 170 customers nearly $473,000. Here's what goes wrong and who gets paid.Do You Need a New Roof Before Solar in Illinois? (2026 Roof-Age Rules)Old roof, new panels? Pulling solar off for a roof job runs an estimated $2,800-$6,000. The Illinois roof-age rule, and how to sequence both jobs to pay once.Can You Rent Solar Panels in Illinois? What Actually Exists in 2026There's no such thing as renting solar panels in Illinois. But there is Community Solar — a state-vetted subscription that gets you bill credits without any equipment. Here's how it actually works.New Illinois Laws: A Family of Four Earning $99,000 Can Now Get Help With Their Electric BillPritzker signed HB 4456 and HB 5524 on July 9. One raises energy-assistance income limits to 300% of poverty. The other itemizes every charge on your bill.Do Solar Panels Increase Your Property Taxes in Illinois? (2026)Adding solar raises your home's value — so will your property taxes jump too? In Illinois, no. The state's special solar assessment keeps that value off your tax bill.New Illinois Solar for All Income Limits (2026): $97,200 for a Cook County Family of FourIllinois Solar for All raised its income limits on June 1, 2026. A family of four can earn $97,200 in Cook County and still qualify. Here are the county numbers.Will Illinois Have Rolling Blackouts? What ComEd's 'Critical Level' Alerts Mean (2026)ComEd told parts of Chicagoland the grid hit a 'critical level' during the July heat wave. Here's the honest answer on rolling blackout risk in Illinois — and what you can control.Freedom Forever Filed for Bankruptcy — What Illinois Solar Customers Should Do NowFreedom Forever filed Chapter 11 in April 2026. If your Illinois solar system is installed, unfinished, or under quote — here's exactly what to do next.ComEd & Ameren Want Another Rate Hike — CUB Found $1 Billion in Questionable SpendingComEd filed a $15.3B grid plan and Ameren wants millions more — CUB found over $1 billion in questionable spending. What the next IL rate hikes mean for you.What Solar Panels Really Cost in Illinois in 2026 (Honest Numbers, No Lead-Selling)What solar panels actually cost in Illinois in 2026 — real per-watt and per-system numbers, what changed this year, and why we don't sell your info to five callers.Illinois Electric Rates Keep Climbing — Does Solar Finally Make Sense in 2026?Ameren and ComEd rates are up ~90% in five years and still climbing. Here's how to see what you're on track to overpay — and whether solar finally makes sense.Illinois Net Metering Changed in 2025 — What It Costs You and How to Protect Your SavingsIllinois ended full retail net metering on Jan 1, 2025. Here's what the switch to net billing actually costs solar owners — and how to protect your savings.The 30% Solar Tax Credit Ended — Here's How Illinois Homeowners Still Get It in 2026The 30% federal tax credit ended for homeowner-owned systems on Dec 31, 2025. Here's how Illinois homeowners can still capture federal solar value in 2026.How Much Does a Solar Lease Cost Per Month in Illinois? (2026)What does a solar lease actually cost per month in Illinois? Real 2026 numbers, what's included, and how a predictable lease rate compares to a rising utility bill.Ameren vs ComEd 2026: Which Costs More Per kWh? (ComEd Runs ~1.5¢ Higher)ComEd averages ~17¢/kWh, Ameren Illinois ~15.5¢/kWh. See the full 2026 breakdown: supply charges, delivery fees, summer spikes, and how much it costs per month.Ameren Rate Increase 2026: Summer Rate Ends — Oct 1 Price to Compare Is 10.441¢ (ComEd 10.103¢)Updated September 30, 2026: the Ameren rate increase put the summer Price to Compare at 11.326¢/kWh (ComEd 10.399¢) through September 30; from October 1 it is 10.441¢ (ComEd 10.103¢). See the average Illinois electric rate now, why bills jumped June 1, and what changed October 1.The Iran War Is Sending Oil Prices Through the Roof — Will Your Illinois Electric Bill Follow?Oil is at $112/barrel after the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Here's how the Iran conflict could push Illinois electricity rates even higher — and what you can do now.Why Your Ameren Bill Keeps Going Up (and What MISO Has to Do With It)Ameren bills jumped 18-22% in summer 2025 and rose again June 1, 2026. Here's why MISO capacity auctions are driving your rates up and what you can do about it.The Real Cost of Solar Panels in Illinois: 2026 BreakdownWhat do solar panels actually cost in Illinois in 2026? Real numbers for cash purchase, lease, and Solar for All — from an installer who gets prices below the state average.Selling a House With Leased Solar Panels in Illinois (2026 Guide)Selling a house with leased solar panels in Illinois? Here's how the lease transfer works, what buyers actually think, and why it's not the problem most people expect — owned systems too.Solar Lease vs Buying Panels: I Did the Math for IllinoisShould you lease or buy solar panels in Illinois? I broke down the real numbers for both paths using current 2026 prices, incentives, and Ameren/ComEd rates.Data Centers = 70% of Illinois's Rate Spike (Here's What It Costs You)Data centers drove 70% of Illinois's capacity-cost spike in 2026. See the PJM/MISO mechanism, the per-household cost impact, and what to do to protect your bill.ComEd Rate Increase 2026: Oct 1 Supply Drops to 10.103¢, but Delivery Didn'tUpdated Oct 2026: ComEd's 2026 rate increase put the Price to Compare at 10.399¢/kWh through September 30; from October 1 it is 10.103¢/kWh. What changed June 1, what reset October 1, the ICC delivery increases that didn't reset, and your all-in cost per kWh.Illinois Electricity Rates Have Nearly Doubled Since 2021 — Here's What That Means for Your BillIllinois electricity rates have surged 90%+ since 2021. Here's what's driving the increases, what to expect next, and how to protect your household.Illinois Solar Incentives 2026: 7 Programs Worth $12,000-$18,000+Illinois solar incentives 2026: Illinois Shines RECs, the new $20/REC customer-owned adder, $300/kW DG rebate, battery rebate, net metering, and property tax exemption — worth $12,000-$18,000+ on an owned system. Plus no-cost Solar for All for income-eligible households.Solar Battery Backup in Illinois — What It Actually Powers and Whether It's Worth ItWhat does a solar battery actually run during an outage? How much does it cost with the $300/kWh rebate? Here's the honest breakdown for Illinois homeowners.

“41 panels, $10/month electric bills. Ryan stayed on top of the project from start to finish.”

Bruce Brooks
Bruce BrooksShiloh, IL

“$10/month Ameren bills since June 2023. Outstanding knowledge and responsiveness.”

Rod Hinrichs
Rod HinrichsFreeburg, IL

“Ryan is knowledgeable, caring, and a really good listener. I highly recommend discussing solar with him.”

LH
Linda HaycraftShiloh, IL

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